The Primera Division de Colombiano-Apertura Round 3 sees Deportiva Once Caldas host Millonarios. Millonarios is favored at -0.25 @ 2.02. Both teams face fixture congestion, with short rest periods affecting their readiness. The statistically probable scores suggest a tight contest, with 0:1 and 1:1 being the most likely outcomes. The expected win probabilities are Deportiva Once Caldas at 29.9%, Draw at 28.8%, and Millonarios at 41.3%, indicating a potentially close match. The chance of both teams scoring is 44.3%, while Millonarios has a 37.1% chance of a clean sheet, and Deportiva Once Caldas has an 18.6% chance.
The high altitude of Estadio Palogrande in Manizales could give Deportiva Once Caldas a slight edge, despite the thunderstorm and temperatures between 23℃ and 24℃, which might affect match tempo. Deportiva Once Caldas's recent form is WLWLDL, while their home form is stronger at WWDWWL. Millonarios's overall form is DDWWWD, with a decent away form of DWDW.
Considering the fatigue factor and Millonarios' slight advantage in form, a narrow victory for the away side seems plausible. It’s important to note that both teams might rotate players due to upcoming matches in just three days. With Deportiva Once Caldas and Millonarios having no change in starting XI, the value is still worthwhile.
